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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/01 07:38

   Cotton Lower Ahead of Holiday

   The cotton market is trading lower Friday, yielding back its gains of 
Thursday as traders anticipate the three-day Fourth of July weekend. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is trading lower Friday, yielding back its gains of 
Thursday as traders anticipate the three-day Fourth of July weekend. Thursday 
saw USDA increase acres for the 2022 season by 11%, but the market responded 
with a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact recovery event.

   Friday afternoon, CFTC will update the status of key trading entities; among 
those, the managed-money funds. That group potentially suffered a huge 
reduction in their net long position during the market's six-day mass 
liquidation. However, Friday's data will only tell a partial story, as the 
numbers gathered will be as of this past Tuesday. The report will out at 3:30 
p.m. EDT.

   Weather-wise, Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed extreme to exceptional 
drought persisting across West Texas. In addition, it showed drought conditions 
expanding across the Southeast and the Delta. USDA's most recent data revealed 
declining conditions in 10 out of 14 cotton-producing states. The latest six to 
ten-day forecast indicates above-normal temperatures across much of the cotton 
belt, but also below-normal rainfall for Texas, normal to above-normal for the 
Delta and above-normal for the Southeast.

   The market will be closed Monday in observance of Independence Day and 
trading will resume Monday night at 9 p.m. EDT.

   For Friday, support for December Cotton stands at 95.00 cents and 93.25 
cents, with resistance at 99.50 cents and 101.50 cents. The estimated morning 
volume is 14,078 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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