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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 11/13 07:55
Cotton Futures Rise on Lower Inflation, USDA Export Sales Data
Cotton futures rally on stronger tone, softer inflation data.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market, perhaps following the lead of other markets, is trading
materially higher Friday morning. The metals, the grains, and the stock indexes
are all higher, likely in anticipation of Friday's inflation data.
December Cotton's option expiration happens with Friday's close. Based on a
traders' current put or call position, assignments of futures contracts will
happen at 5 p.m. EST. Also, the December Contract will enter its delivery
period Nov. 23.
USDA just released its weekly export-sales with the following numbers: Net
sales of Upland totaling 157,300 RB for 2026/2027 were down 43 percent from the
previous week and 25 percent from the prior four-week average. Increases were
primarily for Vietnam (56,100 RB, including decreases of 4,400 RB), Turkey
(26,400 RB), Mexico (24,900 RB), Pakistan (10,600 RB), and Bangladesh (8,600
RB). Total net sales of 30,800 RB for 2027/2028 were for Malaysia. Exports of
171,400 RB were up 24 percent from the previous week and eight percent from the
prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (64,600
RB), Bangladesh (19,700 RB), Pakistan (17,600 RB), Mexico (14,300 RB), and
China (10,400 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 15,200 RB for 2026/2027 were up
noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average.
Increases reported for India (11,500 RB), Peru (2,900 RB), Djibouti (1,700 RB
switched from China), Turkey (500 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB), were offset by
reductions for China (1,700 RB). Exports of 7,000 RB were down two percent from
the previous week and from the prior four-week average. The destinations were
primarily to India (2,400 RB), Bangladesh (1,800 RB), Vietnam (1,100 RB),
Thailand (900 RB), and Colombia (500 RB)
Also, the PPI (wholesale inflation) was just issued. The index was expected
to increase 0.4% in October, but Friday's number was 0.3%, obviously less than
expected.
Lastly, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will update its
Commitment of Traders (COT) data at 3:30 p.m. EST Friday. Last week saw the
managed funds sold 3,042 positions, further reducing their net long carry to
53,148 contracts. Friday marks the final day of the Goldman-Sachs fund roll.
For Friday, close-in support for December Cotton stands at 77.90 cents and
77.05 cents, with resistance around 80.20 cents and 81.00 cents. This morning's
estimated volume is 21,785 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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