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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 03/25 07:24
Cotton Inches Up, Watching Weather and War
The cotton market is slightly higher Wednesday morning, as conflicting
swirling news concerning the U.S./Iran War is keeping most markets hunkered
down.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market is slightly higher Wednesday morning, as conflicting
swirling news concerning the U.S./Iran War is keeping most markets hunkered
down. News of a 15-point U.S. peace deal sent to Iran has crude oil sharply
lower, while gold and the Dow Jones are sharply higher. There does seem to be
some sort of climax building toward this weekend.
Thursday at 8:30 a.m., USDA will update its weekly export sales data. Last
week's business saw combined seasonal sales of 320,000 bales, with shipments at
273,000, off 26% weekly.
USDA will issue its Planting Intentions Report on March 31. This will be the
first official look at 2026 acres. The survey will be released at noon EDT.
This Friday, the CFTC will issue its Commitments of Traders report. At last
count, the CFTC reported managed-money funds were net short some 40,000
positions, about one-half their record peak of 81,000-plus contracts. The
report will be issued at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
Dry growing conditions are a grave concern for 2026. As it currently stands,
some 89% of the U.S. Cotton Belt lies in drought conditions. Those dry
conditions are offering some price support as U.S. plantings are getting
underway. Certain weather forecasting companies indicate some rain episodes
could possibly emerge late March and early April for the Texas and environs.
However, a general soaking seems unlikely any time soon.
Chart support for July cotton stands at 69.00 cents and 68.75 cents, with
resistance around 70.60 cents and 71.20 cents. Wednesday morning's estimated
volume is 19,877 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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