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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 04/07 07:21
Cotton Up, But Holding Its Breath
The cotton market is somewhat higher Tuesday amid all of the unfolding
U.S./Iran machinations.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market is somewhat higher Tuesday amid all of the unfolding
U.S./Iran machinations. Tuesday at 8 p.m. EDT, marks the deadline for the
Iranians to open the Strait of Hormuz to allow international shipping to
navigate unencumbered, or else.
Monday, USDA issued its first crop progress report of the 2026 season. It
showed U.S. plantings at 5%, matching the five-year average. Only Arizona,
California, and Texas have initiated recordable plantings.
USDA will issue a new round of export sales Thursday. Last week saw combined
seasonal sales over 488,000 bales. Shipments were 356,000, down 11% weekly.
Also Thursday, USDA will update its supply-demand tables via the April WASDE
report. Supposedly, government tabulators will not assign a yield number until
the May report.
Friday, traders will see a fresh readout of consumer prices via the April
CPI. Certainly, increased fuel prices and surcharges have been spreading across
shipping and airlines, a signal that energy disruptions are already feeding
into consumer costs.
Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data. Last
week saw the managed-money funds had net bought some 21,000 positions, reducing
their net-short carry to 12,266 contracts.
Chart support for July cotton stands at 73.00 cents and 72.45 cents, with
resistance around 74.60 cents and 75.00 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated
volume is 32,872 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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