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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 11/04 07:21
Cotton Up on Blue Wave?
Cotton prices rise on the Blue Wave, export demand and COT focus.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market was materially higher overnight, likely as a result of the
U.S. Midterm's Blue Wave. The outcome suggests an eventual end to many
Trump-era economic policies, including tariffs.
This Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST, USDA will issue its weekly export sales.
Highlights from the previous week's data showed combined seasonal sales tallied
254,833 bales versus the prior 199,630. China was a major participant.
Cumulative sales have reached 49% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year average
of 57%.
On Friday, traders will see a new monthly jobs report. October's report
showed 65,000 new non-farm jobs were added to the economy. This month's guess
is 29,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
Also, on Friday, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will
update its Commitments of Traders (COT) data. Last week saw the managed funds
sell 10,000-plus positions, reducing their net-long carry of 56,190 contracts.
U.S. stock markets are substantially higher as a result of the decisive
victory by Democrats in the midterm elections. Democrats won majorities in both
the House of Representatives and Senate and scored victories in key
gubernatorial races like Georgia and Texas. The Democrats will now be a check
on the policies of Trump, who's enacted business-friendly tax cuts, while also
pursuing tariffs and a war in Iran that's ramped inflation.
For Wednesday, close-in support for December Cotton stands at 77.10 cents
and 76.45 cents, with resistance around 79.30 cents and 80.40 cents. Wednesday
morning's estimated volume is 33,886 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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