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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 05/18 07:13
Cotton Higher as War Drums Beat
After its big spill of last week (750 point high/low range), the cotton
market is higher Monday amid technical considerations and the possibility of
renewed war with Iran.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After its big spill of last week (750 point high/low range), the cotton
market is higher Monday amid technical considerations and the possibility of
renewed war with Iran. The latter situation is also rejuvenating the Chicago
grains. This week, traders will see crop progress, updated weather forecasts,
and a new round of export sales.
Friday, the CFTC updated its Commitments of Traders data. Last week, the
managed-money funds bought some 8,300 positions, lifting their net-long carry
to 59,570 contracts. The all-time bullish record stands at 108,788 contracts.
Crude oil is higher Monday after President Trump said "the clock was
ticking" for Iran. Traders are gearing up for renewed fighting with Iran.
The current U.S. Drought Monitor showed fractional improvement in the
current general drought now gripping the Cotton Belt. The current reading is
97% drought, which is off one tick from its previous reading of 98%.
Today at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will issue its weekly crop progress data. Last
week the 2026 crop was reported at 29% planted compared to its five-year
average of 28% complete.
The 6- to 10-day forecast (May 23-27) shows normal temperature readings for
Texas, but above-normal readings for the U.S. Delta and the Southeast.
Rain-wise, Texas shows much-above normal chances, while the Delta and the
Southeast indicate only slightly above-normal opportunities.
Chart support for December cotton stands at 80.70 cents and 80.00 cents,
with resistance around 85.00 cents and 87.50 cents. Monday morning's estimated
volume is 18,575 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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