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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 01/29 07:40
Cotton Holds the Line
The cotton market is treading water as it awaits some market-moving news to
emerge.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market is treading water as it awaits some market-moving news to
emerge.
Just now USDA issued its weekly export sales report with the following data:
"Net sales of Upland totaling 203,700 RB for 2025/2026 were down 51 percent
from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.
"Increases primarily for Pakistan (52,000 RB, including decreases of 100
RB), Vietnam (45,600 RB, including 400 RB switched from Japan, 100 RB switched
from South Korea, and decreases of 100 RB), China (38,800 RB), Guatemala
(18,400 RB), and unknown destinations (11,400 RB), were offset by reductions
for Honduras (5,000 RB) and South Korea (800 RB).
"Net sales of 15,000 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Nicaragua (6,600 RB), El
Salvador (5,800 RB), Guatemala (5,600 RB), Indonesia (2,100 RB), and Vietnam
(1,400 RB), were offset by reductions for Turkey (6,600 RB).
"Exports of 257,000 RB -- a marketing-year high -- were up 37 percent from
the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. The
destinations were primarily to Vietnam (114,400 RB), Turkey (37,600 RB),
Pakistan (18,300 RB), Mexico (13,700 RB), and Indonesia (12,700 RB).
"Net sales of Pima totaling 24,800 RB for 2025/2026 -- a marketing-year high
-- were up 52 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior
4-week average.
"Increases were primarily for Pakistan (12,200 RB), India (7,500 RB,
including decreases of 700 RB), Egypt (2,200 RB), Vietnam (2,200 RB), and
Turkey (400 RB).
"Total net sales of 500 RB for 2026/2027 were for Italy.
"Exports of 4,500 RB were down 55 percent from the previous week and 49
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China
(1,900 RB), Thailand (1,000 RB), Pakistan (400 RB), Bangladesh (400 RB), and
Colombia (300 RB)."
The Federal Reserve announced no movement on U.S. interest rates Wednesday
at its 2 p.m. EST announcement. The inaction continues to sink the U.S. dollar
and rally the precious metals.
The U.S. government may be heading for another partial shutdown on Jan. 30.
The death of another Minnesota person by federal agents this past weekend is
unifying the Democrats in Congress to halt the funding of the DHS budget.
However, most funding for Homeland Security, some $29 billion, has already been
approved.
March options will expire on Feb. 6, or in about two weeks. Traders will be
anticipating what amount of Puts and Call may expire "in-the-money".
Chart support for March cotton stands at 63.45 cents and 63.00 cents, with
resistance hovering about 64.40 cents and 65.00 cents. Thursday morning's
estimated volume is 12,278 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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