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DTN Closing Cotton 05/11 13:36
Cotton Market Posts New Life-of-Contract Highs Monday
The cotton market pushed ever higher today as it posted new life-of-contract
highs.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market pushed ever higher today as it posted new life-of-contract
highs. Traders were encouraged by the growing bullish position of the
speculative funds, as well as having positive expectations from Tuesday's May
WASDE and the Trump/Xi meeting later this week.
Last Friday, the CFTC issued its latest Commitment of Traders update. The
numbers showed that the managed-money funds bought some 12,800 positions,
lifting their net-long carry to 51,184 contracts. For context, their all-time
record bullish position was 108,788 contracts.
Last week's U.S. Drought Monitor continued to show that 98% of the U.S.
cotton area was still experiencing drought. Last year, the reading at this time
was 38% drought.
This afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress
report. Last week, the 2026 crop was 21% planted versus 19% planted last year.
Tuesday at noon EDT, USDA will issue its May WASDE. A survey of analysts
showed an average trade estimate to be 13.76 million bales, which would be down
from last year's 13.92 million. U.S. exports are expected around 12.27 million
bales versus 12.00 in 2025/2026, and ending stocks are expected to be around
4.20 million bales compared to 4.40 million. World production for 2026/2027 is
expected to be around 119.06 million bales versus 121.87 million seen in
2025/26. Global ending stocks are pegged at 75.63 million versus the previous
77.04 million bales.
This week will see the Trump/Xi trade meeting in Beijing. The two sides have
much to discuss including tariffs, Taiwan, Iran and rare earths.
For Monday, July closed at 87.77 cents, up 304 points; December 2026 closed
at 87.40 cents, plus 194 points; and March 2027 finished at 87.94 cents, 181
points lower. Monday's estimated volume was 85,918 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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