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DTN Closing Cotton 11/14 13:41
Cotton Off With Other Ag Markets
The cotton market was slightly lower today amid the release of an update of
supply-demand tables.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market was slightly lower today amid the release of an update of
supply-demand tables. At noon EST, USDA issued its latest WASDE and
essentially, the numbers were unfriendly to bearish.
From its own website:
"USSD detailed the November outlook for US cotton. Thus, 2025/26 U.S. cotton
supply and demand shows higher production, exports and ending stocks compared
to September, with no change to consumption and imports. The forecast for U.S.
production raised almost 900,000 bales to 14.1 million, reflecting higher
expected yields in most States and increasing the projected national average
yield almost 7 percent to 919 pounds per harvested acre. The export forecast
increased 200,000 bales to 12.2 million. The balance of the production increase
flows to ending stocks, which are raised almost 20 percent to 4.3 million
bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.9 percent. The projected season-average
upland price for 2025/26 is lowered to 62 cents per pound. The 2025/26 outlook
for world cotton supply and demand in November shows higher production,
consumption, trade, and stocks compared to the September outlook. Global cotton
production is forecast 2.4 million bales higher with increases of 1 million
bales in China, about 900,000 bales in the United States, and 500,000 bales in
Brazil. World trade raised 300,000 bales and consumption 50,000 bales.
Beginning stocks are raised over 400,000 bales largely reflecting updated
2024/25 trade data for several countries. As a result of these changes, global
ending stocks are raised from about 2.8 million bales to 75.9 million."
December cotton will enter its delivery on Nov. 21. Thus, all traders,
except those intending to participate in the notice process, will have to
liquidate or roll forward in time.
The U.S. dollar is headed lower, as investors trimmed positions while
waiting to assess a backlog of U.S. data following the government's reopening.
Traders had sold the Greenback despite higher yields and expectations for a
Federal Reserve rate cut next month receding. The move came alongside a selloff
in U.S. equities and bonds, which spilled over into Asian markets on Friday.
For Friday, December 2025 ended at 62.49 cents, off 41 points, while March
2026 closed at 63.14 cents, minus 40 points. Friday's estimated volume was
97,819 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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