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DTN Closing Cotton 03/19 13:30
Cotton Holds Upward Path
The cotton market maintained its upward bias Thursday, even though the
market has become somewhat overbought.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market maintained its upward bias Thursday, even though the
market has become somewhat overbought. Certainly, the Iranian conflict has
heightened fears, but the basic positive fundamentals of adverse growing
conditions, the upward seasonality, higher input costs, the Trump/Xi trade
meeting, and potentially fewer 2026 acres, collectively continue to buoy the
market.
Highlights from Thursday's USDA export sales report include net sales of
196,691 bales for the 2025-26 (current) marketing year and 122,221 for 2026-27
for a total of 318,912. The combined sales were the highest amount since Feb.
12. Cumulative sales have reached 83% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year
average of 96% for this point in the marketing year. Also, shipments of 273,926
bales were the third highest of the marketing year.
Friday at 3:30 p.m., CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders
information. At last count the managed-money funds were net short a hefty
66,700 contracts. However, given the big volume of Monday and Tuesday, their
bearish position may have lessened.
The U.S. stock markets precipitously fell Thursday amid inaction by the
Federal Reserve and sharply higher crude oil prices. The spike in oil was
caused by Iran striking a key LNG export facility in Qatar.
USDA will issue its Planting Intentions Report on March 31. This will be the
first official look at 2026 acres. The survey will be released at noon, EDT.
For Thursday, July closed at 69.61 cents, down 96 points; December 2026
closed at 71.99 cents, minus 65 points; and March 2027 finished at 72.90 cents,
57 points lower. Thursday's estimated volume was 89,599 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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