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DTN Closing Cotton 10/01 13:36
Cotton "Unravels" Further
Cotton hits harvest-season lows; exports soften while dollar strength
pressures prices.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market posted new lows Thursday for its current rundown. In fact,
the December Cotton is trading at price levels not seen since last July.
However, given that October is the first month of the traditional harvest
season, it is "normal" for prices to trade lower.
Highlights from Thursday's weekly exports-sales include net sales of 202,567
bales for the 2026/27 (current) marketing year and 39,160 for 2027/28. The
combined seasonal sales tallied 241,727, below last week's sum of 353,511
bales. Cumulative sales for 2027/28 have reached 4.937 million bales, 43% of
the USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 51%. Shipments totaled
149,507 bales, down from 164,704 of the previous week. Although Vietnam was the
largest buyer at 51,222 bales, China was the fourth-largest buyer at 38,370
bales. This was the first purchase since the beginning of the marketing year on
August 1st.
At 3:30 p.m. Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data.
Last week's numbers showed that the managed-money traders were net sellers of
16,000-plus contracts, which reduced their net long carry to 81,610. Their
record stands at 108,788 contracts.
The U.S. Dollar continues to rise, posting its sixth consecutive quarter of
gains versus the world's currencies. Yields on fixed-income contracts are
rising, which is supporting the Greenback. To that end, global bonds suffered
their largest monthly decline in decades during September, resulting in higher
yields. The toxic mix of deteriorating government deficits, a glut of issuance,
and rising inflation is causing the "financial chaos."
Into next week, cotton traders will see fresh crop progress data on Monday,
new exports-sales on Thursday, plus the WASDE report on Friday, updating
cotton's supply-demand tables.
For Thursday, December closed at 7776 down 76 points, March 2027 finished at
8061, off 77 points, and July 2027 settled at 8276, minus 77 points. Today's
estimated volume was 83,375 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
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