DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/03 10:56
Grain Futures Mixed at Midday
Corn futures are steady to 1 cent higher, soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents
higher, and wheat futures are 8 to 15 cents lower.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 260 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 35 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are
firmer with crude up .80. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are
higher with gold up $4.
Corn futures are steady to 1 cent higher at midday with light short-covering
with oversold conditions to start the week and little other fresh news. Ethanol
margins are a little narrower with the flatness in energies and the end of
summer driving season looming. Basis has remained fairly flat in recent days,
with isolated pockets of pre-harvest strength. Weekly crop progress is expected
to show steady to slightly better conditions, and development slightly ahead of
the 5-year average. Weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 716,726
metric tons (mt). On the September contract, trade continues to have resistance
at the 20-day moving average at $3.28, with chart support at the lower
Bollinger band at $3.13.
Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade working back
towards the $9.00 area yet again with slightly weaker spreads and another
260,000 mt booked to unknown. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil is 40 to 50
higher. Demand will need to be the driver of rallies with weather threats
limited into early podfill. The real remains at the upper point of the recent
range vs. the dollar, which should keep new-crop interest robust, although we
are losing ground to start the week. Weekly crop progress should show steady to
slightly better conditions with maturity ahead of the 5-year average. Weekly
export inspections improved a bit to 551,543 mt. The September chart now has
resistance at the 20-day moving average at $8.90 which we are just above, and
support the lower Bollinger band at $8.74.
Wheat futures are 8 to 15 cents lower with the alternating pattern
continuing as pressure from the dollar bounce offsets talk of the smaller
Continental Europe harvest. The ruble is holding vs. the dollar with the bounce
this morning. KC is at an 89-cent discount to Chicago with spreads back to the
top end of the range, while Minneapolis is back to a 17-cent discount with
slight weakness in the inter-rmonth spreads. Weekly crop progress should show
harvest nearly complete for winter wheat with spring wheat getting underway
with steady conditions. Export inspections remained steady at 500,110 mt. KC
September chart support is the recent low at $4.23 3/4, with the 20-day back
above the market as nearby resistance at $4.45, which is we are fading from
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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